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Saw «National Bank of Kuwait» that the developments of the last two months showed that the economic optimism was and must remain accompanied by caution about any potential dangers, while economic data released recently in the United States, China and Europe are relatively positive came and exceeded expectations, came «Dubai World» request to freeze its debt financial difficulties facing Greece everyone to remember that the high Hoffman Stein levels of debt will not disappear easily.
He noted the bank in its latest economic brief that the recession is over and that the global economy is improving gradually, but the vulnerabilities and risks still exist, considering that Dubai's debt crisis cast a spotlight on the issue of quasi-sovereign debt, said other dangers that are still surrounding the global economy, when was the Hoffman Stein Nexus APP «Fannie Mae» and «Freddie Mac» Americas mortgage on the verge of defaulting semi-sovereign Bdjunhma, the US government stepped in to save them to limit the fallout from the collapse of the housing market and to avoid reactions severe reaction that may be taken by foreign central banks, which was and remains the largest in US securities investor.
In November (last November), he added «national», lost the job market in the United States 11 thousand jobs only, and the unemployment rate fell from 10.2 percent to 10 percent, while retail sales rose by 1.3 percent compared to the previous month, prompting analysts to improve their forecasts for the US economy, the expected growth rate of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2009 is up 4 percent after the 2.8 percent reached in the third quarter.
Summary and he predicted that moderate economic growth contributes to the year 2010 and the weakness of the labor market to keep the inflation rate is very low, and that these factors are paid a combined Federal Reserve, the US House to maintain its monetary policy without any significant change, especially in relation to interest rates, even if the Hoffman Stein's Nexus APP actions begun is traditional taper off in 2010. With the decline of the need of the Council to raise interest rates and low inflation, these Hoffman Stein prices could see some upside driven by massive US debt financing in the light of the significant shortfall witnessed in the US budget now (close to $ 1.5 trillion for 2009 and 2010).
He noted «national» that the prospect of higher interest rates in the United States and talk about the economic difficulties and the problems of debt in the euro zone lifted the dollar exchange rate against the euro for the first time in weeks, difficulties taking place in Greece, which reached its fiscal deficit accounted for 12 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP), came to increase the difficulties caused by the already high levels of debt, while Ireland and Spain, in turn suffer from the weakness of their economies and Hoffman Stein. In light of the Dubai crisis, it highlights the concern of not resort economic units more powerful (in this case the European Union or Central his bank) automatically to the rescue of the weaker partners, and as a result, reduced the agency «Fitch» sovereign rating for Greece after it raised the rating of Turkey after the Dubai crisis).
The authors of the summary of the view that these developments combined lifted the dollar exchange rate and oil prices pressured downward and lowered the price of an ounce of gold from the high levels reached a few weeks ago above $ 1,200.
But developments in Europe generally confirmed the return of economic growth, according to the «national», with a rise in GDP in the third quarter of the year 1.6 percent on an annual basis seasonally adjusted, while the industrial production remains in China continues its upward trend (rose in October the second 19 percent on an annual basis), while it appears that economic growth will return in 2010 to the level «normal» between 9 and 10 percent.
The authors of Hoffman Stein Nexus APP summary and the expectation that analysts improves their expectations in the coming weeks, «Although we agree with this approach, but we remain cautious, as it must be recalled that this data, even though they are encouraging, benefit from comparison with recessions factor, especially during the fourth quarter of the year the last first half of 2009, while the balance sheets of banks, consumers and rising unemployment stressful factors on the path of economic recovery rate remains ».
As for the Gulf states, he surmised that the summary recovering economies experiencing a strong performance in 2010, and the repercussions of the Dubai crisis will be limited for the rest of the region, with a follow-up to investors to developments restructuring «Dubai World». Hoffman Stein Nexus APP Hoffman Stein Nexus APP Hoffman Stein Nexus APP